Pulse Asia Research, Inc. is pleased to share with you some findings on the May 2022 National Elections from the November 2020 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from November 23 – December 2, 2020 using face-to-face interviews.

The following are only some of the key developments that took place immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for the present survey:

1. The series of typhoons that hit various parts of the country in November 2020; the more serious of these weather disturbances are Super Typhoon Rolly, which made landfall four (4) times on 01 November 2020 (i.e., in Catanduanes, Albay, Quezon, and Batangas), and Typhoon Ulysses, which made landfall three (3) times in various parts of Quezon on 11-12 November 2020; the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) estimates that Super Typhoon Rolly resulted in 25 deaths and damages to infrastructure and agriculture amounting to about P 13B and P 5B, respectively; the agency also reported 101 deaths in the aftermath of Typhoon Ulysses as well as damages to infrastructure and agriculture totaling around P 13B and P 7B, respectively;

2. The massive flooding in the Cagayan Valley region due in part to the series of typhoons that hit the country one after the other that caused, in turn, the rise in water levels of the Magat Dam and the Cagayan River; President Rodrigo R. Duterte declared a state of calamity in Luzon in order to “hasten the rescue, relief, and rehabilitation efforts” in the areas affected by the typhoons and flooding and ordered the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) to investigate mining and logging activities in Cagayan Valley that may have contributed to the disastrous situation;

3. The release of the data from Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccine trials showing that the vaccines against COVID-19 developed by these pharmaceutical companies are 90% and 94.5% effective, respectively; the United Kingdom (UK) was the first country to issue an emergency use authorization for the vaccine while in the Philippines, the President also issued an order on 02 December 2020 that grants the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) the authority to allow emergency use of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments after a one-month review process instead of the usual six-month review period;

4. The designation of retired Army General Carlito Galvez, Jr. as the country’s vaccine czar who will be responsible for all matters related to the acquisition, distribution, and administration of COVID-19 vaccines in the Philippines; the latter said the “realistic” rollout of vaccines in the country is end of 2021 or early 2022 while the best case scenario is second quarter of 2021; the country’s mass vaccination program is expected to last from three (3) to five (5) years;

5. The call made by several senators to block the Philippine International Trading Corporation (PITC), an agency attached to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), from being the entity primarily responsible for the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines amounting to P 20B in light of its poor handling of the purchase of equipment and supplies urgently needed by frontline government agencies and calamity victims; a Commission on Audit (COA) report shows that as of December 2019, public funds amounting to P 33B were sitting idly in PITC bank accounts instead of being used for the procurement of goods for agencies; following the exposé on the matter by Senator Franklin Drilon, Department of Finance (DOF) Secretary Carlos Dominguez III requested the transfer of PITC funds and the interest earned from these funds to the national treasury to augment the government’s budget for its COVID-19 response and disaster relief efforts, a request granted by the DTI;

6. The approval by the Senate on third and final reading of the 2021 General Appropriations Bill (GAB) on 26 November 2020; the proposed national budget amounts to P 45T and includes bigger allocations for health, social welfare, disaster response, education, and COVID-19-related initiatives; the Senate and the House of Representatives, which approved the GAB on 16 October 2020, began their bicameral deliberations on the legislative measure on 01 December 2020;

7. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit hosted by Malaysia and held virtually on 20 November 2020 during which the member-states affirmed their determination to, among others, cooperate with each other to “successfully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts”; during the meeting, President Duterte called on his fellow chief executives to ensure universal access to COVID-19 vaccines and that no one will be left behind on the road to recovery from the pandemic;

8. The warning issued by President Duterte that many corrupt government officials will lose their jobs in December 2020 as part of his administration’s anti-corruption campaign during the remaining years of his term; the Task Force Against Corruption, created by the President to lead the campaign and headed by Department of Justice (DOJ) Secretary Menardo Guevarra, began receiving complaints against erring officials and agencies on 06 November 2020; a reward of P 50,000 to P 100,000 was offered by President Duterte to anyone who can provide information about government officials engaged in anomalous activities; the DOJ Secretary said no entity will be spared from scrutiny and even the Office of the Vice-President will be investigated if any complaint will be filed against it;

9. The disclosure made by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) that it has blacklisted 25 “non-performing or scheming” contractors since 2016 and it will conduct biddings for its procurements via livestream to enable the general public to observe the proceedings; meanwhile, the Philippines failed to pass the “Control of Corruption” indicator in the scorecard used by the Millenium Challenge Corp. (MCC), a United States (US) government foreign aid agency, and as such, it will not be able to avail of any grants from the agency in 2021;

10. The appointment of Major General Debold Sinas as the new Philippine National Police (PNP) Chief effective 10 November 2020; the latter was involved in a controversy in May 2020 when he had a surprise birthday party inside Camp Bagong Diwa despite the government regulation against holding public gatherings under the prevailing quarantine status in Metro Manila; the President’s marching order for the new PNP Chief is for him to get tougher on illegal drugs and the communist insurgency;

11. The continuation of the General Community Quarantine (GCQ) status of Metro Manila, Batangas, Lanao del Sur, and Davao del Norte until 31 December 2020 due to the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in these areas; all other parts of the country are under Modified GCQ (MGCQ) status until the end of the year; meanwhile, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said it expects a sharp decline in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year due to the quarantine restrictions that have already resulted in a GDP contraction of 11.5% in the third quarter of 2020; and

12. The presidential election in the United States (US) held on 03 November 2020; due to the close races in several states such as Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, it was not until 07 November 2020 that the country’s major media networks called the election in favor of former US Vice-President Joseph R. Biden and California Senator Kamala Harris; US President Donald J. trump decried what he alleged to be widespread electoral fraud and refused to concede while the General Services Administration (GSA) withheld the $ 7.3M in transition funding that the president-elect’s team is entitled to before finally releasing such funds on 23 November 2020.

This nationwide survey is based on a sample of 2,400 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a ± 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 4% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical details may refer to our website (www.pulseasia.ph)

Pulse Asia Research’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia Research undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Ana Maria Tabunda, Research Director of Pulse Asia Research at 09189436816 or Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia Research President via Viber or Telegram at +639189335497 or at ronald.holmes@gmail.com (via email).


About a quarter of Filipino adults (26%) support a probable presidential bid by Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte while in the vice-presidential race, the leading contenders are Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso (17%), Davao City Mayor Duterte (16%), and Senate President Vicente Sotto III (14%)

If the May 2022 presidential election was held during the survey period, around one (1) out of every four (4) Filipino adults (26%) would vote for Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte as the country’s new chief executive. A small majority of Mindanawons (58%) as well as small pluralities in the Visayas (29%) and Class D (26%) express support for the latter. (Please refer to Table 1.)

Four (4) politicians comprise a group of probable presidential candidates who find themselves sharing second place behind the Davao City Mayor. These are former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. (14%), Senator Grace Poe (14%), Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso (12%), and Senator Emmanuel Pacquiao (10%). Six (6) other personalities register presidential voter preferences of at most 8% – Vice-President Maria Leonor G. Robredo (8%), Senator Panfilo Lacson (4%), Senator Christopher Go (4%), Taguig City-Pateros Representative Alan Peter Cayetano (3%), Senator Richard Gordon (0.2%), and former Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio (0.1%). On the other hand, 4% of Filipino adults still do not know whom they would elect as president/refuse to identify their preferred presidential bet/are not voting for anyone as president.

In Metro Manila, the top probable candidates for president are former Senator Marcos (20%), Manila Mayor Domagoso (18%), Davao City Mayor Duterte (16%), Senator Poe (12%), and Senator Pacquiao (12%). Those in the rest of Luzon are most supportive of Senator Poe (17%), Manila Mayor Domagoso (17%), former Senator Marcos (16%), Vice-President Robredo (13%), Davao City Mayor Duterte (12%), and Senator Pacquiao (9%). Meanwhile, the most preferred presidential bets of those belonging to Class ABC are Davao City Mayor Duterte (27%) and former Senator Marcos (21%). And in Class E, Davao City Mayor Duterte (23%), Senator Poe (18%), and Senator Pacquiao (14%) post the highest voter preferences.

As for the May 2022 vice-presidential election, three (3) individuals are statistically tied for the post of vice-president – Manila Mayor Domagoso (17%), Davao City Mayor Duterte (16%), and Senate President Sotto (14%). Behind them are former Senator Marcos (11%), Senator Pacquiao (11%), and Senator Go (9%). Filipinos are least supportive of the probable vice-presidential bids of Sorsogon Governor Francis Escudero (6%), Taguig City-Pateros Representative Cayetano (5%), Senator Juan Edgardo Angara (2%), Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Secretary Mark Villar (2%), and Atty. Jose Manuel Diokno (2%). Non-support for any of these personalities is expressed by 4% of Filipino adults. (Please refer to Table 2.)

Manila Mayor Domagoso (22%) and Senate President Sotto (18%) enjoy the most support among Metro Manilans while in the rest of Luzon, the highest levels of support are recorded by Manila Mayor Domagoso (20%), Senate President Sotto (18%), and former Senator Marcos (13%). Five (5) politicians post essentially the same double-digit voter preferences in the Visayas – Davao City Mayor Duterte (18%), former Senator Marcos (16%), Senator Pacquiao (15%), Manila Mayor Domagoso (12%), and Senate President Sotto (11%). In Mindanao, about a third of adult residents (32%) favor Davao City Mayor Duterte over other probable vice-presidential bets.

In Class ABC, the leading contenders are Davao City Mayor Duterte (22%), Senate President Sotto (14%), Manila Mayor Domagoso (12%), and former Senator Marcos (12%). Those in Class D are most inclined to vote for Manila Mayor Domagoso (18%), Davao City Mayor Duterte (15%), and Senate President Sotto (13%). Among those in Class E, the top vice-presidential candidates are Senate President Sotto (19%), Manila Mayor Domagoso (14%), Davao City Mayor Duterte (14%), Senator Pacquiao (11%), and former Senator Marcos (10%).

Most Filipino adults (58%) already have 12 preferred senatorial candidates for the May 2022 elections; out of 49 probable senatorial bets, 16 have a statistical chance of winning if the said elections coincided with the conduct of survey interviews

Even though the May 2022 elections are still about 15 months away, 58% of Filipino adults are already identifying 12 individuals they are inclined to elect to the Senate (i.e., out of a maximum of 12). Majority figures are recorded in most geographic areas (64% to 76%) and all socio-economic classes (55% to 59%), with the rest of Luzon being the exception (45%). Overall, Filipinos are naming a mean of 10 and a median of 12 of their favored senatorial candidates. Across geographic areas and socio-economic groupings, mean figures vary from 8 to 11 while median figures range from 10 to 12. (Please refer to Table 3.)

Most of the 16 probable winners in the senatorial race are either incumbent or former members of Congress. In solo 1st place is Senator Pacquiao, with a voter preference of 62.1%. On the other hand, 2.6% of Filipino adults are still undecided about their senatorial choices, 1.7% refuse to name their preferred candidates for the post, and 1.5% are not inclined to vote for any personality as senator. (Please refer to Table 4.)

In 2nd to 3rd places is Mr. Raffy Tulfo, whose probable senatorial bid has the backing of 54.3% of Filipino adults. Close behind him is Davao City Mayor Duterte, who is supported by 50.9% and is in 2nd to 4th places. Manila Mayor Domagoso posts a voter preference of 48.4% that translates to a statistical ranking of 3rd to 7th places. Sharing 4th to 7th places are Sorsogon Governor Escudero (46.7%) and Taguig City-Pateros Representative Cayetano (46.0%). Completing the top half of the list of probable winners is House Deputy Speaker and Antique Representative Loren Legarda, whose voter preference of 45.6% means a statistical ranking of 4th to 8th places.

Completing the list of probable winners in the May 2022 senatorial election are: (1) former Senator Marcos (41.8%, 7th to 9th places; (2) Senator Lacson (38.2%, 8th to 10th places); (3) Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (35.7%, 9th to 10th places); (4) Senator Sherwin Gatchalian (28.1%, 11th to 16th places); (5) former Senator Jinggoy Estrada (28.0%, 11th to 16th places); (6) Senator Francis Pangilinan (27.9%, 11th to 16th places); (7) Senator Risa Hontiveros (27.0%, 11th to 16th places); (8) Senator Gordon (26.9%, 11th to 16th places); and (9) DPWH Secretary Villar (25.0%, 11th to 20th places).