February 2022 Nationwide Survey on the May 2022 Elections

Pulse Asia Research, Inc. is pleased to share with you some findings on the May 2022 Elections from the February 2022 Pulso ng Bayan Pre-Electoral national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 18 – 23, 2022 using face-to-face interviews. This nationwide survey is based on a sample of 2,400 representative adults 18 years old and above, who are registered voters and likely to vote in the May 2022 elections. It has a ± 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 4% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical details may refer to our website (www.pulseasia.ph)

The following are some of the key developments that took place in the weeks immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for the present survey:

1. The extension of Alert Level 2 in Metro Manila until 28 February 2022, with seven (7) areas outside Metro Manila being placed under Alert Level 3; the lifting by 13 Metro Manila local government units (LGUs) of mobility restrictions for unvaccinated individuals amidst the decreasing number of daily reported COVID-19 cases in the country; the start of the COVID-19 vaccination drive for those aged 5-11 years old;

2. The dismissal, on 10 February 2022, by the First Division of the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) of three (3) petitions seeking to disqualify former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. from the May 2022 presidential election; prior to her retirement from the poll body on 02 February 2022, the dissenting opinion on these cases by former COMELEC Commissioner Rowena Guanzon was released to the public;

3. The start of the official campaign period for national candidates in the coming elections on 08 February 2022, with the different presidential candidates kicking off their respective campaigns in various parts of the country; the public outcry against the COMELEC’s “Oplan Baklas” that was launched on 16 February 2022 beginning in Metro Manila; the call made by the COMELEC for candidates and their supporters to strictly adhere to safety guidelines during their campaign activities amidst the continuing COVID-19 pandemic;

4. The participation of former Senator Marcos in the presidential debate sponsored by the Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI), a company owned by Pastor Apollo Quiboloy who earlier endorsed the former lawmaker and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte for the May 2022 elections; this came after ex-Senator Marcos declined to be interviewed for the Jessica Soho Presidential Interviews series and his non-appearance in the Kapisanan ng mga Brodkaster ng Pilipinas (KBP) Presidential Forum; Vice-President Maria Leonor G. Robredo, Senators Panfilo Lacson and Emmanuel Pacquaio, and Manila Mayor Francis Domagoso declined the invitation to join the SMNI debate;

5. The release of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee’s partial report on its investigation into the COVID-19 supply contracts entered into by the government with Pharmally Pharmaceutical Corporation and its recommendation to file criminal charges against several individuals, including Department of Health (DOH) Secretary Francisco Duque III and former Presidential Economic Adviser Michael Yang; Senator Richard Gordon, head of the committee, said President Rodrigo R. Duterte “must be held accountable” for betrayal of public trust arising from the involvement of his allies and friends in these questionable transactions;

6. The request made by transport groups for a provisional P 10 minimum fare for public utility jeepneys (PUJs) while their petition for a P 15 minimum fare is being heard by the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB); the petition was filed by jeepney drivers and operators amidst the continued increase in oil prices due in part to rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine; and

7. The order by Russian President Vladimir Putin, issued on 21 February 2022, for troops to be sent to two (2) breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, defying threats of sanctions from the United States (US) and other countries; the Philippine Embassy in Poland has started coordinating with Ukrainian authorities to ensure the safety of Filipinos in the country as well as for the repatriation of those wishing to return to the Philippines.

Pulse Asia Research’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia Research undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Ana Maria Tabunda, Research Director of Pulse Asia Research at 09189436816 or Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia Research President via Viber or Telegram at +639189335497 or at ronald.holmes@gmail.com (via email).

Former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. retains the lead in the February 2022 pre-election survey of Pulse Asia Research while Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso enjoys the highest second-choice voter preference

With the support of 60% of the country’s registered voters who are likely to cast their ballot in May 2022, former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. would be elected as the next Philippine president if the elections took place during the survey period. The latter enjoys the lead in all geographic areas and socio-economic groupings (53% to 68% and 58% to 61%, respectively). In second place is Vice-President Maria Leonor G. Robredo, whose own presidential bid is backed by 15% of likely voters. The Vice-President posts double-digit voter preferences across geographic areas and socio-economic classes (16% to 19% and 13% to 17%, respectively), with Mindanao being the exception (5%). (Please refer to Table 1.)

Breakdown of pre-election Presidential preferences

The following candidates running for president in the May 2022 elections each register voter preferences of at most 10% – Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso (10%), Senator Emmanuel Pacquiao (8%), Senator Panfilo Lacson (2%), Mr. Faisal Mangondato (0.4%), Bukluran ng Manggagawang Pilipino (BMP) Chairperson Leodegario de Guzman (0.1%), and Dr. Jose Montemayor, Jr. (0.01%). Former Presidential Spokesperson Ernesto Abella and former Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Norberto Gonzales receive essentially no support from the country’s electorate. The rest of likely voters are still undecided about their choice for president in May 2022 (3%), refuse to identify their preferred presidential bet (0.4%), or are not inclined to vote for any candidate for the post (1%).

Should their original choice for president withdraw from the elections, 26% of voters with a first choice for president would instead vote for Manila Mayor Domagoso. Second place in terms of second-choice voter preferences is shared by Senator Pacquiao (13%), Vice-President Robredo (12%), Senator Lacson (11%), and former Senator Marcos (9%). BMP Chairperson de Guzman and Mr. Mangondato each register a 1% alternative voting figure. The other presidentiables garner less than 1% second-choice voter preferences: former Presidential Spokesperson Abella (0.4%), Dr. Montemayor (0.2%), and former DND Secretary Gonzales (0.2%). The rest of likely voters do not have a second-choice presidential bet (23%), are ambivalent about their alternative candidate for the post (4%), or refuse to name their second-choice presidential candidate (0.1%). (Please refer to Table 2.)

Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte remains the frontrunner in the May 2022 vice-presidential race while Senate President Vicente Sotto III posts the highest second-choice voting figure

Majority of the country’s likely voters (53%) are inclined to elect Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte as the successor of Vice-President Maria Leonor G. Robredo. Meanwhile, the vice-presidential bid of Senate President Vicente Sotto III has the support of almost a fourth of those likely to vote in May 2022 (24%). Around a tenth (11%) would vote for Senator Francis Pangilinan if the May 2022 elections coincided with the conduct of the survey interviews. Two vice-presidential candidates register single-digit voter preferences, namely, Dr. Willie Ong (6%) and Buhay Party-List Representative Jose Atienza, Jr. (1%). The other candidates obtain less than 1% voting support: Mr. Emmanuel Lopez (0.1%), former Akbayan Party-List Representative Walden Bello (0.1%), and Atty. Carlos Serapio (0.01%). Mr. Rizalito David receives essentially no support from the country’s electorate. Indecision/refusal/non-support in relation to one’s original vice-presidential preference are sentiments shared by 4% of likely voters. (Please refer to Table 3.)

Breakdown of pre-election Vice-Presidential preferences

Likely voters with a first choice for vice-president are most inclined to choose Senate President Sotto (31%) as their alternative candidate for the post. Three (3) other vice-presidential bets enjoy double-digit second-choice voting figures – Senator Pangilinan (15%), Dr. Ong (11%), and Davao City Mayor Duterte (11%). The rest of the candidates for vice-president post alternative levels of electoral support of at most 5% – Buhay Party-List Representative Atienza (5%), Mr. Lopez (1%), former Akbayan Party-List Representative Bello (0.1%), Atty. Serapio (0.1%), and Mr. David (0.05%). On the other hand, 23% of likely voters do not have a second-choice vice-presidential candidate, 3% are ambivalent on the matter of whom to vote for if their original candidate withdraws from the elections, and 0.02% refuse to name their alternative vice-presidential bet. (Please refer to Table 4.)

A slim majority of likely voters (51%) have a complete slate for the May 2022 senatorial election; 14 out of the 64 senatorial candidates have a statistical chance of winning, with Mr. Raffy Tulfo enjoying solo 1st place (66.9%)

As of February 2022, a bare majority of likely voters (51%) are naming 12 of their preferred candidates for the Senate (i.e., out of a maximum of 12). Majority figures are recorded in the Visayas (69%), Mindanao (73%), Class D (52%), and Class E (55%). The country’s likely voters are identifying a mean of 9 and a median of 12 of their favored senatorial bets. Across geographic areas mean figures vary from 8 to 11 while the mean across socio-economic classes is 9. (Please refer to Table 5.)

Among the 64 individuals seeking a senatorial seat in the May 2022 elections, 14 have a statistical chance of winning. Most of the probable winners are either incumbent or former members of Congress. Currently enjoying solo 1st place is Mr. Raffy Tulfo, who has the support of 66.9% of likely voters. Sharing 2nd to 4th places are Antique Representative Loren Legarda (58.9%), former Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Mark Villar (56.2%), and Taguig City-Pateros Representative Alan Peter Cayetano (55.0%). Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (50.5%) and Sorsogon Governor Francis Escudero (49.8%) share 5th to 7th places.

The other senatorial candidates with a statistical chance of winning, as of February 2022, are Mr. Robin Padilla (47.3%, 5th to 9th places), former Vice-President Jejomar Binay (45.6%, 7th to 10th places), Senator Sherwin Gatchalian (44.6%, 7th to 10th places), Senator Joel Villanueva (42.0%, 8th to 11th places), former Senator Jinggoy Estrada (38.6%, 10th to 11th places), former Quezon City Mayor Herbert Bautista (32.8%, 12th to 14th places), Senator Risa Hontiveros (32.3%, 12th to 14th places), and former Senator JV Estrada Ejercito (31.6%, 12th to 14th places). Meanwhile, 1.4% of likely voters are ambivalent as regards their choices for senator, another 0.3% refuse to name their preferred senatorial candidates, and 0.8% are not likely to vote for any senatorial bet.

Nine (9) party-list groups succeed in surpassing the 2.0% voter preference threshold needed to secure at least one (1) congressional seat

Among likely voters, 83% express support for a party-list group. And of the 177 party-list groups participating in the May 2022 polls, nine (9) obtain voter preferences of at least 2.0% of the total number of votes cast for the party-list elections. The said level of support enables the following groups to surpass the 2.0% voter preference they need to secure at least one (1) seat at the House of Representatives in the first round of seat allocation as stated in the 17 February 2017 resolution issued by the Supreme Court ACT-CIS (8.02%), Ako Bicol (5.97%), Senior Citizens Partylist (5.61%), Malasakit@Bayanihan (5.38%), 4Ps (5.25%), An Waray (2.92%), Uswag Ilonggo (2.60%), Gabriela (2.31%), and AGAP (2.11%). Five (5) of these groups garner enough support to enable them to secure three (3) seats in the Lower House, which is the maximum number of seats that can be won by a party-list group. These are ACT-CIS, Ako Bicol, Senior Citizens Partylist, Malasakit@Bayanihan, and 4Ps. Four party-list groups will obtain two seats: An Waray; Uswag Ilonggo, Gabriela, and Agap. To complete the maximum number of party-list representatives, 40 other party-list groups obtain at least one seat in the lower house. Among likely voters, 83% have a preferred party-list group. (Please refer to Table 7.)